Global Data Highlights
Monday, March 14
23:30 GMT – RBA Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
Readers will recall that the RBA kept its key interest rate unchanged at 2.0% in its meeting earlier this month, though it did leave the door open for potential rate cuts moving forward. Monday’s meeting minutes will provide more details on the distribution of opinions within the RBA itself, but traders should keep in mind that these views may have changed over the last two weeks, especially after last week’s abysmal Chinese Trade data.
Tuesday, March 15
TBD – BOJ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
While there is no set time for the conclusion of the BOJ’s meetings, the monetary policy statements are typically released in the 5:00 – 6:00 GMT timeframe. After last week’s dramatic easing actions by the ECB, pressure may start to grow on the BOJ to keep pace with more easing, but given the yen strength after the BOJ’s most recent interest rate cut, no changes are expected yet.
11:30 GMT – US Retail Sales
Retail sales in the world’s largest economy have been persistently disappointing of late, hovering in the 0.0-0.5% m/m range for the last six months. Traders and economists expect another relatively weak reading of -0.1% this time around, though the following day’s CPI and Fed meeting may overshadow this release.
Wednesday, March 16
8:30 GMT – UK Employment Report
The UK labor market has taken a worrying turn of late, with new jobless claimants increasing in each of the last two months. Much like with the US jobs reports, traders will key in on not only the headline job creation/destruction, but also the change in wages, which are expected to tick up toward a 2.0% growth rate; if seen, decent wage data could take the bite out of a negative job creation figure.
11:30 GMT – US CPI
Could the US economy finally be seeing signs of rising inflation? Based on the recent strength in average hourly earnings, core PCE, and last month’s US CPI report, traders are more optimistic about US inflation than they’ve been in years. Economists expect a decline in headline inflation this month, but the accompanying core inflation figures will provide a better view of the sustainable price pressures in the US economy.
17:00 GMT – FOMC Monetary Policy Meeting
Despite its previous intentions, the Federal Reserve will almost certainly leave interest rates steady in the 0.25-0.5% range this month. That said, with nascent signs of rising price pressures and a recovery in risk assets, the Fed may come off as relatively hawkish. The primary market impact of this meeting will likely be to shape the expectations for June’s FOMC meeting.
23:30 GMT – AU Employment Report
Jobs figures from Down Under are notoriously volatile, but traders and economists are looking for growth in the 12k range after last month’s disappointing -8k decline in jobs. As usual, the market reaction to this data, even if it’s dramatically different than expected, may be relatively limited given this data’s volatile history.
Thursday, March 17
7:30 GMT – SNB Monetary Policy Meeting
Following on the heels of last week’s aggressive easing action from their most important neighbor, the ECB, the SNB may have to cut interest rates further to keep pace. Some traders and economists are expecting additional interest rate cuts, whereas others believe that the SNB will simply increase its intervention in the market to cap the value of the franc.
Friday, March 18
14:00 GMT – US University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment
Consumer confidence took a hit last month along with the stock market, but with the recovery in equities and still-low gas prices, a recovery in consumer sentiment seems likely. This report, along with Tuesday’s retail sales report, will provide a thorough update on the status of the US consumer.
