Forex Daily Technical analysis report Wave Analysis 14.03.2016 (EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD)

Forecast for March 14^th, 2016

EUR USD, “Euro vs US Dollar”

Probably, last week Eurodollar completed the wave [ii] in the form of the flat. It looks like on the minor wave level the pair is already forming the descending impulse in the wave (i). In the nearest future, the market may continue its decline.



More detailed structure is shown on the H1 chart. The flat in the wave [ii] has been finished with a fast impulse in the wave (c). After completing the wave ii, the market mat resume falling and break Friday’s low.

GBP USD, “Great Britain Pound vs US Dollar”

Pound is still being corrected. It looks like the wave 4 is taking the form of the zigzag with the ascending impulse [c] inside it. Later, the pair may start falling and form the descending impulse in the wave (i).



As we can see at the H1 chart, after completing the wave [b], Pound has started growing in the wave [c] of 4with the wave (iv) being finished inside it. On Monday, the price may complete the local correction and move upwards a little bit in the wave (v) of [c].

USD JPY, “US Dollar vs Japanese Yen”

It looks like Yen has finished the triangle [iv]. Consequently, in the nearest future the market may start falling in the wave [v] of C and later break the minimum of the wave [iii].



Probably, Yen completed the wave (e) and then rebounded from the triangle’s upper border. Later, the market formed the descending impulse in the wave i. After completing the local correction, the price may start falling in the wave iii.

AUD USD, “Australian Dollar vs US Dollar”

Australian Dollar is about to finish the ascending wave 4. On the minor wave level, the price has completed the impulse (c) of [y]. One of these days, the pair may resume falling.



More detailed structure is shown on the H1 chart. It looks like after finishing the wave iv, the pair has formed the bullish impulse in the wave v of (c). On Monday, the price may fall in the wave i.



 
RoboForex Analytical Department

Forex Global Data Highlights -2016/03-14

Global Data Highlights

Monday, March 14

23:30 GMT – RBA Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

Readers will recall that the RBA kept its key interest rate unchanged at 2.0% in its meeting earlier this month, though it did leave the door open for potential rate cuts moving forward. Monday’s meeting minutes will provide more details on the distribution of opinions within the RBA itself, but traders should keep in mind that these views may have changed over the last two weeks, especially after last week’s abysmal Chinese Trade data.

Tuesday, March 15

TBD – BOJ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

While there is no set time for the conclusion of the BOJ’s meetings, the monetary policy statements are typically released in the 5:00 – 6:00 GMT timeframe. After last week’s dramatic easing actions by the ECB, pressure may start to grow on the BOJ to keep pace with more easing, but given the yen strength after the BOJ’s most recent interest rate cut, no changes are expected yet.

11:30 GMT – US Retail Sales

Retail sales in the world’s largest economy have been persistently disappointing of late, hovering in the 0.0-0.5% m/m range for the last six months. Traders and economists expect another relatively weak reading of -0.1% this time around, though the following day’s CPI and Fed meeting may overshadow this release.

Wednesday, March 16

8:30 GMT – UK Employment Report

The UK labor market has taken a worrying turn of late, with new jobless claimants increasing in each of the last two months. Much like with the US jobs reports, traders will key in on not only the headline job creation/destruction, but also the change in wages, which are expected to tick up toward a 2.0% growth rate; if seen, decent wage data could take the bite out of a negative job creation figure.

11:30 GMT – US CPI

Could the US economy finally be seeing signs of rising inflation? Based on the recent strength in average hourly earnings, core PCE, and last month’s US CPI report, traders are more optimistic about US inflation than they’ve been in years. Economists expect a decline in headline inflation this month, but the accompanying core inflation figures will provide a better view of the sustainable price pressures in the US economy.

17:00 GMT – FOMC Monetary Policy Meeting

Despite its previous intentions, the Federal Reserve will almost certainly leave interest rates steady in the 0.25-0.5% range this month. That said, with nascent signs of rising price pressures and a recovery in risk assets, the Fed may come off as relatively hawkish. The primary market impact of this meeting will likely be to shape the expectations for June’s FOMC meeting.

23:30 GMT – AU Employment Report

Jobs figures from Down Under are notoriously volatile, but traders and economists are looking for growth in the 12k range after last month’s disappointing -8k decline in jobs. As usual, the market reaction to this data, even if it’s dramatically different than expected, may be relatively limited given this data’s volatile history.

Thursday, March 17

7:30 GMT – SNB Monetary Policy Meeting

Following on the heels of last week’s aggressive easing action from their most important neighbor, the ECB, the SNB may have to cut interest rates further to keep pace. Some traders and economists are expecting additional interest rate cuts, whereas others believe that the SNB will simply increase its intervention in the market to cap the value of the franc.

Friday, March 18

14:00 GMT – US University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment

Consumer confidence took a hit last month along with the stock market, but with the recovery in equities and still-low gas prices, a recovery in consumer sentiment seems likely. This report, along with Tuesday’s retail sales report, will provide a thorough update on the status of the US consumer.