Greece is in a default, but the euro is unfazed
The main currency pair is unusually calm on Wednesday morning: the Greek technical default took place, although no one has given this definition of the lack of payment.
Default is the most popular hashtag on the Greek instagram. In my opinion, this is popularity: the economic problems of Athens are watched more than kittens and other fun things. However, for Greece itself it is now unlikely to be convenient and comfortable, in fact, starting from July 1st, it has two months to figure out how to pay off it debts. If the solution does not appear by September, the country will declare itself bankrupt for real.
The euro/dollar is stable on Wednesday morning, and the pair is trading around 1.1130. Athens owes most of their money to Germany, Spain and Italy. Well, the International Monetary Fund, of course. Despite the fact that on paper, there is some budget surplus, there is almost no money in the treasury. Before Greece was also in arrears with payments and tried to negotiate more favorable conditions of service credit lines. But now all this is in the past: Greece will not see the tranche of almost 7 billion euro until it pays off the debt.
The market is talking about whether Russia will pay the 1.6 billion euro for Greece. I think it will not. On SPIEF there were talks about loans, but Moscow will keep its neutrality in this matter. At the moment it makes no sense to direct the focus of the Old World on itself.
Greece, as a result of recent events, has become the first of the developed countries, who could not repay the loan to the IMF. The precedent has been created, and who knows what will happen next in the story of the rich lenders and the poor borrowers.
The behavior of the euro/dollar is very interesting in this context. Most likely, in the coming days, the instrument will play on any comments on this subject, but the entry to the bottom of the medium-term range will happen only if the dialogue, as vague as it is, will turn in an unexpected direction.
