Forex Technical Analysis forex trading blog uk 11.03.2016 (EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/CHF, USD/JPY,)

Analysis for March 11^th, 2016

EUR USD, "Euro vs US Dollar"

Eurodollar expanded its trading range downwards to form the reversal pattern, and then, being influenced by the news, expanded the range upwards as well. The pair has reached its target. However, the form of this ascending movement implies that today the price may be corrected towards 1.1057 and then (an alternative scenario) form another ascending structure with the target at 1.1290. Later, in our opinion, the market may continue falling to reach 1.0770.

GBP USD, "Great Britain Pound vs US Dollar"

Pound has reached the target of its ascending wave and right now is forming another consolidation channel. The descending impulse isn't strong enough to reverse the trend downwards so far and may be considered only as the correction towards 1.4277 (at least) or even 1.4115. After that, the pair may start another growth to reach a new high and then form a new descending wave with the target at 1.3750.

USD CHF, "US Dollar vs Swiss Franc"

Franc expanded its trading range upwards and then, being influenced by the news, expanded the range downwards as well.  We think, today the price may be corrected to return to 0.9933. Later, in our opinion, the market may fall towards 0.9776 and then start another growth with the target at 1.0200.

USD JPY, "US Dollar vs Japanese Yen"

Yen has rebounded from the upper border downwards and may reach 111.88. As long as the market continues growing, it may expand the consolidation channel towards 116.00 as another correction. However, this growth is quite questionable and may be considered only as an alternative scenario. The main scenario still implies that the price is expected to fall towards 108.40.

AUD USD, "Australian Dollar vs US Dollar"

Australian Dollar is still consolidating at the top of its ascending wave; this movement may be considered as a possible reversal pattern. We think, today the price may fall towards 0.7400 and then return to 0.7460 to test it from below.  After that, the pair may start another decline with the target at 0.7300.

USD RUB, "US Dollar vs Russian Ruble"

Russian Ruble is forming the third wave inside the downtrend. The target is at 65.00. After that, the pair may be corrected towards 72.

XAU USD, "Gold vs US Dollar"

Although Gold has reached a new high, right now it is forming another descending impulse. We think, today the price may reach 1263 and then return to 1274. Later, in our opinion, the market may break the minimum of the first impulse and then continue falling inside the downtrend to form the first descending wave with the target at 1191.

Wave Analysis 11.03.2016 (EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD) ECN FX

EUR USD, "Euro vs US Dollar"

Probably, the wave [ii] is taking the form of the zigzag, and the bullish rally, which took place yesterday, was the wave (c) inside it. Consequently, later the pair may continue fall in the wave (i). If the price does form the descending impulse, the market will resume its decline.



More detailed structure is shown on the H1 chart. Probably, after completing the wave (b) in the form of thezigzag, the price has formed a fast bullish impulse in the wave (c). If the pair forms the descending wave i during the day, bears may return to the market.

GBP USD, "Great Britain Pound vs US Dollar"

It's highly likely that Pound has completed the correction. However, in order to confirm it, the pair must form the descending wave (i). Until that, there is a risk that the wave [c] of 4 may continue and I wouldn't start selling right now.



As we can see at the H1 chart, after completing the wave [b], Pound has formed the ascending impulse, which may be the wave [c] of 4. However, this movement may as well be considered as the first wave in the wave [c], which means that the market has completed its decline in the form of the correctional pattern and formed this bullish impulse after that.

USD JPY, "US Dollar vs Japanese Yen"

It looks like Yen has finished the triangle [iv]. Consequently, in the nearest future the market may start falling in the wave [v] of C and later break the minimum of the wave [iii].



More detailed structure of the triangle is shown on the H1 chart. Probably, yesterday Yen completed thezigzag in the wave (e). After rebounding from the pattern's upper border, the market has started falling in the wave i. After completing the local correction, the price may start forming the bearish wave iii.

AUD USD, "Australian Dollar vs US Dollar"

Australian Dollar is still forming the ascending wave 4. On the minor wave level, the price is forming the impulse (c) of [y]. One of these days, the pair may complete the bullish impulse and resume falling.



At the H1 chart, the pair is about to finish the wave (c) of [y]. On the minor wave level, Australian Dollar is finishing the wave v. Possibly, on Friday the price may break the maximum of the wave iii and then start falling.

Forex Technical Analysis 22.10.2015 (EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/CHF, USD/JPY, AUD/USD, USD/RUB, GOLD)

EUR USD, “Euro vs US Dollar”

Eurodollar is falling to break the ascending channel downwards at 1.1330. The predicted downside target is at 1.1170. The closest target is at 1.1242. After that, the instrument may return to the broken ascending channel and then start another descending movement to reach the above-mentioned predicted target (at least).

GBP USD, “Great Britain Pound vs US Dollar”

Pound has rebounded from the center of the consolidation channel and returned to the lower border. We think, today, the price may break the border and the ascending channel as well. The downside target is at 1.5320. After that, the instrument may return to the broken ascending channel at 1.5410.

USD CHF, “US Dollar vs Swiss Franc”

Franc has broken its descending channel. The predicted upside target is at 0.9660. After that, the instrument may return to the broken descending channel at 0.9570 and then continue moving upwards to reach 0.9870.

USD JPY, “US Dollar vs Japanese Yen”

Yen is rebounding from 120.00. The downside target is at 119.10. After that, the instrument may return to 119.50 to test it from below and then continue falling inside the downtrend to reach 117.00.

AUD USD, “Australian Dollar vs US Dollar”

Australian Dollar has formed another descending structure, which may be considered as a half of the third structure of the correction. We think, the price may consolidate at the current lows and try to grow towards 0.7270. After that, the instrument may continue falling to reach the local target at 0.7150.

USD RUB, “US Dollar vs Russian Ruble”

Ruble is still moving in the center of its consolidation channel. We think, today, the price may continue falling towards the channel’s lower border. After breaking it, the instrument may reach the local target at 60.00.

XAU USD, “Gold vs US Dollar”

Gold has expanded its trading range downwards and is trying to break the ascending channel. The main scenario implies that the price may form another structure to reach 1155.

Forex Report Asian Setion

EUR/USD

Summary :  Target Level : 1.1116 Target Period : 2 days  Analysis :  Triangle identified at 29-Sep-12:00 2015 GMT. This pattern is still in the process of forming. Possible bearish price movement towards the support 1.112 within the next 2 days. Resistance Levels :  ( B ) 1.1282Last resistance turning point of Triangle. Support Levels ( A ) 1.1116Last support turning point of Triangle. Chart date range :  15-Sep-20:00 GMT-> 30-Sep-04:00 GMT Data interval : 4 hour RSI: 34 Candles MA: 34 Candles

USD/JPY

Summary :  Target Level : 119.5305 Target Period : 6 hours  Analysis :  Pennant identified at 30-Sep-03:00 2015 GMT. This pattern is still in the process of forming. Possible bearish price movement towards the support 119.53 within the next 6 hours. Resistance Levels :  ( B ) 120.051Last resistance turning point of Pennant. Support Levels ( A ) 119.5305Last support turning point of Pennant. Chart date range :  25-Sep-21:00 GMT-> 30-Sep-06:00 GMT Data interval : hour RSI: 34 Candles MA: 34 Candles

USD/CAD

Summary :  Target Level : 1.3371 Target Period : 3 days  Analysis :  Rising Wedge identified at 30-Sep-04:00 2015 GMT. This pattern is still in the process of forming. Possible bearish price movement towards the support 1.337 within the next 3 days. Resistance Levels :  ( B ) 1.3458Last resistance turning point of Rising Wedge. Support Levels ( A ) 1.3371Last support turning point of Rising Wedge. Chart date range :  17-Sep-02:00 GMT-> 30-Sep-06:00 GMT Data interval : hour RSI: 34 Candles MA: 34 Candles

NZD/USD

Summary :  Target Level : 0.6288 Target Period : 3 days  Analysis :  Triangle identified at 29-Sep-21:00 2015 GMT. This pattern is still in the process of forming. Possible bearish price movement towards the support 0.629 within the next 3 days. Resistance Levels :  ( B ) 0.6395Last resistance turning point of Triangle. Support Levels ( A ) 0.6288Last support turning point of Triangle. Chart date range :  17-Sep-00:00 GMT-> 30-Sep-06:00 GMT Data interval : hour RSI: 34 Candles MA: 34 Candles

GBP/JPY

Summary :  Target Level : 184.4465 Target Period : 2 days  Analysis :  Falling Wedge identified at 30-Sep-04:00 2015 GMT. This pattern is still in the process of forming. Possible bullish price movement towards the resistance 184.446 within the next 2 days. Supporting Indicators :  RSI below 40 Resistance Levels :  ( B ) 184.4465Last resistance turning point of Falling Wedge. Support Levels ( A ) 180.9525Last support turning point of Falling Wedge. Chart date range :  14-Sep-16:00 GMT-> 30-Sep-04:00 GMT Data interval : 4 hour RSI: 34 Candles MA: 34 Candles

GBP/CHF

Summary :  Target Level : 1.4985 Target Period : 2 days  Analysis :  Falling Wedge identified at 30-Sep-06:00 2015 GMT. This pattern is still in the process of forming. Possible bullish price movement towards the resistance 1.498 within the next 2 days. Resistance Levels :  ( B ) 1.4985Last resistance turning point of Falling Wedge. Support Levels ( A ) 1.4683Last support turning point of Falling Wedge. Chart date range :  18-Sep-21:00 GMT-> 30-Sep-06:00 GMT Data interval : hour RSI: 34 Candles MA: 34 Candles

EUR/CAD

Summary :  Target Level : 1.4815 Target Period : 3 days  Analysis :  Rising Wedge identified at 30-Sep-06:00 2015 GMT. This pattern is still in the process of forming. Possible bearish price movement towards the support 1.482 within the next 3 days. Resistance Levels :  ( B ) 1.5159Last resistance turning point of Rising Wedge. Support Levels ( A ) 1.4815Last support turning point of Rising Wedge. Chart date range :  16-Sep-09:00 GMT-> 30-Sep-06:00 GMT Data interval : hour RSI: 34 Candles MA: 34 Candles

GBP/CAD

Summary :  Target Level : 2.026 Target Period : 17 hours  Analysis :  Channel Up identified at 29-Sep-20:00 2015 GMT. This pattern is still in the process of forming. Possible bearish price movement towards the support 2.026 within the next 17 hours. Resistance Levels :  ( B ) 2.0401Last resistance turning point of Channel Up. Support Levels ( A ) 2.026Last support turning point of Channel Up. Chart date range :  24-Sep-05:00 GMT-> 30-Sep-06:00 GMT Data interval : hour RSI: 34 Candles MA: 34 Candles

EUR/NZD

Summary :  Target Level : 1.795 Target Period : 3 days  Analysis :  Channel Down identified at 28-Sep-12:00 2015 GMT. This pattern is still in the process of forming. Possible bullish price movement towards the resistance 1.795 within the next 3 days. Resistance Levels :  ( B ) 1.795Last resistance turning point of Channel Down. Support Levels ( A ) 1.7455Last support turning point of Channel Down. Chart date range :  10-Sep-08:00 GMT-> 30-Sep-04:00 GMT Data interval : 4 hour RSI: 34 Candles MA: 34 Candles

GBP/NZD

Summary :  Target Level : 2.3691 Target Period : 14 hours  Analysis :  Head and Shoulders identified at 29-Sep-20:00 2015 GMT. This pattern is still in the process of forming. Possible bearish price movement towards the support 2.369 within the next 14 hours. Supporting Indicators :  Downward sloping Moving Average Resistance Levels :  ( B ) 2.3917Last resistance turning point of Head and Shoulders. Support Levels ( A ) 2.3691Last support turning point of Head and Shoulders. Chart date range :  24-Sep-15:00 GMT-> 30-Sep-06:00 GMT Data interval : hour RSI: 34 Candles MA: 34 Candles

CAD/JPY

Summary :  Target Level : 90.9525 Target Period : 2 days  Analysis :  Falling Wedge identified at 29-Sep-12:00 2015 GMT. This pattern is still in the process of forming. Possible bullish price movement towards the resistance 90.952 within the next 2 days. Resistance Levels :  ( B ) 90.9525Last resistance turning point of Falling Wedge. Support Levels ( A ) 88.88Last support turning point of Falling Wedge. Chart date range :  14-Sep-00:00 GMT-> 30-Sep-04:00 GMT Data interval : 4 hour RSI: 34 Candles MA: 34 Candles

CHF/JPY

Summary :  Target Level : 122.335 Target Period : 2 days  Analysis :  Descending Triangle identified at 29-Sep-20:00 2015 GMT. This pattern is still in the process of forming. Possible bearish price movement towards the support 122.335 within the next 2 days. Resistance Levels :  ( B ) 123.616Last resistance turning point of Descending Triangle. Support Levels ( A ) 122.335Last support turning point of Descending Triangle. Chart date range :  16-Sep-12:00 GMT-> 30-Sep-04:00 GMT Data interval : 4 hour RSI: 34 Candles MA: 34 Candles

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Forex Trading Opportunities Week Ahead 5 July 2015

I plan my trading for the week ahead each weekend. 

Note that this is my current view, but if market conditions change my view can change too. Generally I will trade in alignment with what I have noted here, though I will wait for a set-up before I enter. I base my view on technical and fundamental information. This is my beliefs and you are welcome to have opposite ones. Having a plan is more important than the actual direction for me. 

• Waiting GBP/USD.  – MT is bull volatile. GBPUSD is ignoring good news and selling off. A bearish sign but want to see technical confirmation of a bear first before looking short.
• Waiting USD/JPY. – MT is sideways normal. Sideways market type continues to hold and a doji candlestick at support on the weekly chart signals indecision.
• Short AUD/USD. Breakout –  MT is bear normal. We have had a significant break-out on the AUDUSD with the weekly candlestick closing below the lower Bollinger band at multi-year lows. AUD is coming under pressure from the stock market crash is China and the continuation of the fall of commodity prices.
• Waiting  EUR/USD. – MT is sideways normal. Need to wait and see how the EUR responds. Price action has been mixed despite what is quite a bearish fundamental situation. Caution advised.
• Short NZD/USD. Trend– MT is strong bear. Continue with our short strategy. Bearish milk auction for the NZD last week and more rate cuts expected.
• Waiting USD/CHF. – MT is sideways normal. Sideways market type continues so best to stay out.
• Waiting EUR/CHF.  – MT is sideways normal . Classic persistent sideways market here. Would have been good trading but best to stay away from this pair due to event risk.
• Long USD/CAD. Trend – MT is bull normal. The long opportunity mentioned a couple of week back continues to play out and we have now entered a bull market type. Oil has made a significant break lower on the weekly chart and bad data in Canada suggests that we could be in store for further rate cuts. Beware of a reversal candlestick pattern here at resistance that will take us back into a sideways market type.
• Waiting EUR/GBP.   – MT is sideways volatile. We have a buy here using our market type model with a bullish engulfing candle off support in a sideways volatile MT. But best to stay out with Greece etc. A yes vote could push this pair higher.
• Short  AUD/JPY. Breakout –  MT is bear normal. Very bearish day on Friday confirms the breakout after the market gapped lower last Monday. If Greek fears persist this could be a very good short.
• Short  NZD/JPY. Trend– MT is normal bear. Continue short.
• Waiting GBP/JPY. Trend – MT is volatile bull. In last weeks video we cancelled our long call after the gap lower and formation of a minor double top. Wait for now.
• Waiting EUR/JPY. –  MT is sideways normal. This is possibly a short but prefer to stay out now. Will revise the call in the video on Monday.
• Long GBP/NZD. Trend – MT is normal bull. The trend continues so we keep buying, but with a deal of caution this week as the GBP is a little out of favor.
• Waiting  EUR/NZD. – MT is bull normal. Watch for formation of a double top here. But wait for now as it’s the EUR.
• Waiting AUD/NZD. – MT is bull volatile. Last weeks short call failed initially but then came back close to the entry (depends if you were using a wide stop). The picture is unclear and volatile for now so stay out… but if pushed I prefer shorts. Go out to the weekly charts and the picture becomes clearer that resistance may hold here.
• Waiting EUR/AUD.  – MT is sideways normal. Wait.
• Long GBP/AUD. Trend – MT is bull normal. Continue to buy with caution.
• Waiting AUD/CAD. –  MT is sideways volatile. Wait for now.
• Waiting GBP/CAD. – MT is bull volatile. While intially profitable we had the expected sell off here.  I am very close to calling this a short based on the bearish engulfing off the key level, but want to wait for one more weeks confirmation.
• Waiting EUR/CAD.  -MT is sideways normal. Wait.
• Short NZD/CAD. Trend– MT is normal bear. Continue short. though with caution as the MT is turning sideways.
• Short CAD/JPY. Trend  – MT is bear normal.  The MT quickly turned bear normal last week and we already have a trend. Time to go short.
• Short CHF/JPY. Trend – MT is bear normal. Look for shorts here, though with caution as the bear market is not yet strong.

MT = Market Type: Click for more information on market types.)

(MT = Market Type: Click for more information on market types.)

Trend: Market is trending in the direction I have listed and I expect it to continue. 

Reversal: I am looking for a reversal against the current trend.

Breakout: The currency pair is breaking out of a range. 

Forex Technical Analysis Forex blog uk

Analysis for July 3^rd, 2015

EUR USD, "Euro vs US Dollar"

After returning to level of 1.1100, Eurodollar has started consolidating inside a narrow channel. We think, today, the price may continue forming its descending wave with the target at level of 1.0930. After that, the pair may return to level of 1.1180.

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GBP USD, "Great Britain Pound vs US Dollar"

Pound is forming another consolidation channel. We think, today, the price may continue falling to reach level of 1.5506. Later, in our opinion, the market may form a correction to return to level of 1.5715.

Forex Technical Analysis 02.07.2015

 Forex Technical Analysis EUR USD, "Euro vs US Dollar"

Eurodollar is under pressure and continues falling; it has formed the central part of its continuation pattern. We think, today, the price may test level of 1.1100 from below and then fall towards level of 1.0965. After that, the pair may return to level of 1.1100 once again and then continue falling to reach level of 1.0930.

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GBP USD, "Great Britain Pound vs US Dollar"

Pound has broken its consolidation channel downwards right now is extending this descending structure. We think, today, the price may reach level of 1.5560, at least. Later, in our opinion, the market may return to level of 1.5715.

USD JPY, "US Dollar vs Japanese Yen"

Yen is moving to return to the center of its consolidation channel. We think, today, the price may continue forming the current descending wave to break the minimum and reach level of 120.60. Later, in our opinion, the market may grow to return to level of 122.22 to test it from below and then form another descending structure to reach level of 119.00.

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