Forex Trading Opportunities Week Ahead 5 July 2015
I plan my trading for the week ahead each weekend.
Note that this is my current view, but if market conditions change my view can change too. Generally I will trade in alignment with what I have noted here, though I will wait for a set-up before I enter. I base my view on technical and fundamental information. This is my beliefs and you are welcome to have opposite ones. Having a plan is more important than the actual direction for me.
- Waiting GBP/USD. – MT is bull volatile. GBPUSD is ignoring good news and selling off. A bearish sign but want to see technical confirmation of a bear first before looking short.
- Waiting USD/JPY. – MT is sideways normal. Sideways market type continues to hold and a doji candlestick at support on the weekly chart signals indecision.
- Short AUD/USD. Breakout – MT is bear normal. We have had a significant break-out on the AUDUSD with the weekly candlestick closing below the lower Bollinger band at multi-year lows. AUD is coming under pressure from the stock market crash is China and the continuation of the fall of commodity prices.
- Waiting EUR/USD. – MT is sideways normal. Need to wait and see how the EUR responds. Price action has been mixed despite what is quite a bearish fundamental situation. Caution advised.
- Short NZD/USD. Trend– MT is strong bear. Continue with our short strategy. Bearish milk auction for the NZD last week and more rate cuts expected.
- Waiting USD/CHF. – MT is sideways normal. Sideways market type continues so best to stay out.
- Waiting EUR/CHF. – MT is sideways normal . Classic persistent sideways market here. Would have been good trading but best to stay away from this pair due to event risk.
- Long USD/CAD. Trend – MT is bull normal. The long opportunity mentioned a couple of week back continues to play out and we have now entered a bull market type. Oil has made a significant break lower on the weekly chart and bad data in Canada suggests that we could be in store for further rate cuts. Beware of a reversal candlestick pattern here at resistance that will take us back into a sideways market type.
- Waiting EUR/GBP. – MT is sideways volatile. We have a buy here using our market type model with a bullish engulfing candle off support in a sideways volatile MT. But best to stay out with Greece etc. A yes vote could push this pair higher.
- Short AUD/JPY. Breakout – MT is bear normal. Very bearish day on Friday confirms the breakout after the market gapped lower last Monday. If Greek fears persist this could be a very good short.
- Short NZD/JPY. Trend– MT is normal bear. Continue short.
- Waiting GBP/JPY. Trend – MT is volatile bull. In last weeks video we cancelled our long call after the gap lower and formation of a minor double top. Wait for now.
- Waiting EUR/JPY. – MT is sideways normal. This is possibly a short but prefer to stay out now. Will revise the call in the video on Monday.
- Long GBP/NZD. Trend – MT is normal bull. The trend continues so we keep buying, but with a deal of caution this week as the GBP is a little out of favor.
- Waiting EUR/NZD. – MT is bull normal. Watch for formation of a double top here. But wait for now as it’s the EUR.
- Waiting AUD/NZD. – MT is bull volatile. Last weeks short call failed initially but then came back close to the entry (depends if you were using a wide stop). The picture is unclear and volatile for now so stay out… but if pushed I prefer shorts. Go out to the weekly charts and the picture becomes clearer that resistance may hold here.
- Waiting EUR/AUD. – MT is sideways normal. Wait.
- Long GBP/AUD. Trend – MT is bull normal. Continue to buy with caution.
- Waiting AUD/CAD. – MT is sideways volatile. Wait for now.
- Waiting GBP/CAD. – MT is bull volatile. While intially profitable we had the expected sell off here. I am very close to calling this a short based on the bearish engulfing off the key level, but want to wait for one more weeks confirmation.
- Waiting EUR/CAD. -MT is sideways normal. Wait.
- Short NZD/CAD. Trend– MT is normal bear. Continue short. though with caution as the MT is turning sideways.
- Short CAD/JPY. Trend – MT is bear normal. The MT quickly turned bear normal last week and we already have a trend. Time to go short.
- Short CHF/JPY. Trend – MT is bear normal. Look for shorts here, though with caution as the bear market is not yet strong.
MT = Market Type: Click for more information on market types.)(MT = Market Type: Click for more information on market types.)Trend: Market is trending in the direction I have listed and I expect it to continue.Reversal: I am looking for a reversal against the current trend.Breakout: The currency pair is breaking out of a range.
